Making models matter for ocean conservation: a Pacific herring case study

Pacific herring in the North Pacific region have recently experienced stock declines, fishery closures, and conflict among resource users. Herring management is currently guided by standard single-species approaches without... [ view full abstract ]

Pacific herring in the North Pacific region have recently experienced stock declines, fishery closures, and conflict among resource users. Herring management is currently guided by standard single-species approaches without consideration for potential ecosystem interactions. Here, we describe efforts to support ecosystem-based management (EBM) and sustainable fisheries using multiple models, and engaging management in developing tools to evaluate tradeoffs across multiple objectives. We describe analyses grounded by the development of a conceptual model of the social-ecological system using an inclusionary, facilitated stakeholder process. Using this conceptual framework, we develop multiple novel models, including a spatially-explicit assessment model, and an operating model that explores hypotheses of herring stock structure and the role of environmental and food web factors on herring populations, for use in a management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework. We link model outputs to economic, socio-cultural, and ecological objectives to enable tradeoff analyses. We incorporate compliance into the MSE framework to show how issues of governance can change model predictions. Last, we incorporate traditional and local knowledge in the modeling and analysis. This work is conducted in a cross-disciplinary and cross-institutional working group that includes managers, modelers, and stakeholders to improve how models are employed to inform EBM.