Global metapopulation viability analysis determining relative extinction risk among threatened seabirds

Population viability analyses are frequently used to assess and manage threatened species. However incorporating metapopulation structure is an important, often lacking component. Here we apply a metapopulation viability... [ view full abstract ]

Population viability analyses are frequently used to assess and manage threatened species. However incorporating metapopulation structure is an important, often lacking component. Here we apply a metapopulation viability analysis (mPVA) to all globally threatened seabirds. We incorporate demographic population data at the metapopulation level and including threat impacts, to formulate a stage-structured, stochastic mPVA. We apply to this mPVA to the world’s 98 threatened seabird species to determine their relative extinction risk and help focus conservation efforts on the species at highest extinction risk. We identify and compare our results with existing extinction risk databases such as the IUCN RedList. Our results highlight the importance of including metapopulation structure in predicative modeling of threatened species and demonstrate the scalability of modeling extinction probability.