Policymaking under Uncertainty: the Case of Sustainable Energy Transitions Systems in Estonia

Governments are increasingly faced with complex, ‘wicked’ challenges characterized by diversity, complexity and uncertainty. In these conditions governments have to make decisions also when evidence is lacking, when they... [ view full abstract ]

Governments are increasingly faced with complex, ‘wicked’ challenges characterized by diversity, complexity and uncertainty. In these conditions governments have to make decisions also when evidence is lacking, when they are confronted with high levels of uncertainty. While our conceptual understanding of uncertainty has considerably improved in recent years, there is still little evidence on how policymakers deal with the former in practise and how policy choices are made. Policymaking under uncertainty seems to fare better in certain institutional and development situations and less in others; there are significant limits to the capacity to project and govern transitions-in-the-making in certain contexts. Thus, previous literature has analysed the conditions (different types of capacity, learning, leadership, institutional context, political support etc.) needed to be more adaptive, reflexive and resilient in the public sector. However, the interlinkages between these variables (necessary and sufficient conditions to facilitate the process) across different levels – and the process behind creating the necessary eco-system in government – have been largely left unexamined. This paper tries to address the issue both theoretically and empirically by exploring one of the most complex and political sectors – sustainable energy transition systems. Using qualitative research methods, this paper looks into how uncertainty affects the policymaking process in practise and which factors influence the process most using the example of Estonian energy policy; especially the policy processes preceding the adoption of the Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030+.