Adaptation Pathways: learning from different applications

Adaptation planning is challenging because it must address conditions of uncertainty and dynamic change. This paper outlines commonalities and differences in the practice experiences of three research groups working in three... [ view full abstract ]

Adaptation planning is challenging because it must address conditions of uncertainty and dynamic change. This paper outlines commonalities and differences in the practice experiences of three research groups working in three different countries on different adaptation challenges, using the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) (Haasnoot et al. 2013) as a starting point. DAPP combines theories and methods from adaptive policy-making (Walker et al.,2001), adaptation tipping points (Kwadijk et al., 2010) and adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al.,2012) as a way of addressing uncertainties and dynamic changes. It is organized around producing a map of alternative pathways of sequences or suites of policy actions to achieve objectives. New action/s are triggered by indications that the predecessors can no longer perform acceptably and a tipping point may be reached.

We discuss our experiences against the different steps of DAPP: 1) describing the system, objectives and uncertainties, 2) identify actions and their tipping points under different scenarios, 3) explore and evaluate pathways, 4) design an adaptive plan, 5) implementation, and 6) monitoring. We focus on how we each have applied those steps in different contexts and the insights gained, including what was achieved, stakeholder involvement, whether and what models and scenarios were used, whether and how tipping points and triggers were identified, and the kinds of pathways developed. The findings will be of interest to both adaptation researchers and practitioners who are working with the concept of pathways planning and enabling or managing system tipping points.

Our analysis suggests that while there are some common features of a pathways planning process, the details of the process are somewhat less important than the power of the concept as a heuristic for beginning necessary shifts in institutionalised policy and adaptation planning practices.