Economic activity: between apocalypse and redemption

Discussion of economic issues tends to focus on aggregates, such as output and employment. From the perspective of sustainability it is important to analyse the qualitative composition of these aggregates, with respect to... [ view full abstract ]

Discussion of economic issues tends to focus on aggregates, such as output and employment. From the perspective of sustainability it is important to analyse the qualitative composition of these aggregates, with respect to questions such as changes in the product/service mix, what are the limits to consumption (both for products and for individuals), and the uncertainties and vulnerabilities of the economic system.

The contribution of the paper is an assessment of these vulnerabilities and how to address issues surrounding the response to uncertainties.

The paper puts forward a research agenda focusing on economic interdependencies and complexities, and the consequent potential for instability, and vulnerability.

The paper seeks to draw attention to wider issues relating to fragility and sustainability and addresses questions posed by the course, and the consequences, of economic transformation.

Technological developments and globalisation have accelerated economic and social change. From the perspective of sustainability it is necessary to understand the driving forces and their consequences, and to develop policy responses.

The intended audience includes those who formulate and influence strategies and policies relating to economic issues and also researchers interested in pursuing the paper's agenda.

The purpose is to stimulate discussion around key issues for decision-makers relating to the direction of economic and social change with reference to sustainability.

The paper analyses the qualitative composition of output, how it will change over time, how expectations are formed and can be influenced in conditions of uncertainty, and what are the scenarios and strategies for change.

Central references.
Silver N (2012) The Signal and the Noise
Skidelsky R and Skidelsky E (2013) How Much is Enough?
Taleb NN (2012) Antifragile

The paper highlights vulnerabilities and opportunities arising from the economic transformation, and concludes that awareness of these is essential for policy responses.

The paper draws attention to issues that underlie the concept of a tipping point in the course of economic development

Key words: sustainable development, economic transformation, vulnerability.