A SPATIAL METHODOLOGY FOR TRANSPORT IMPEDANCE WEIGHTINGS IN CELULLAR AUTOMATA LAND-USE COVER CHANGE MODELS

Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models are increasingly being used to support long term urban and regional planning. These models forecast future land coverage based on land-use interactions, policy restrictions, environmental... [ view full abstract ]

Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models are increasingly being used to support long term urban and regional planning. These models forecast future land coverage based on land-use interactions, policy restrictions, environmental conditions and accessibility. Until now, limited research has been conducted to scientifically determine the impedance or influence of transport infrastructure on each land-use type in an LUCC model. An example could be how attractive a new metro is compared to a highway for new residential developments, which is not always well known by LUCC models. This paper presents customized geospatial analyses to calculate accessibility distance decay factors (ADDF) using an time series geospatial approach called overtime-spatial decay determination (OSDD). The ADDF factors were developed and tested as part of the practical implementation of a LUCC in Bogota – Colombia. The model, called the Bogota Land Development model or BoLD, was built using commercial cellular automata software. In BoLD, two transport infrastructure scenarios were modeled and compared for the west of the city: a highway-based transport network and a suburban rail system. The results from the scenarios are presented in a graphical representation called mobility circles, which are also a key contribution of this research. The validation of the results obtained suggests that the OSDD contributes to better technical backing to LUCC models, particularly when evaluating urban scenarios in which transport projects are the focus. Additionally, the use of geospatial tools for transport impedance weightings appears to facilitate the general understanding of LUCC modeling with cellular automata.  

Keywords: land-use coverage change model, Transport-land-use interaction, Scenario planning, Indicators, LUCC.