Material, energy, and carbon footprints of the residential construction in Colombia: scenarios to 2050

Almost 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in urban areas by 2030, with 95% of urban growth expected to occur in the developing world. Yet, the developing world currently has vast unsatisfied housing needs... [ view full abstract ]

Almost 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in urban areas by 2030, with 95% of urban growth expected to occur in the developing world. Yet, the developing world currently has vast unsatisfied housing needs characterised by rising numbers of people living in slums, inadequate dwellings, deficient access to basic sanitation and water, and constrained and inefficient use of resources like construction materials, land, and energy. Solving these housing issues is at the core of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 9, 11 and 12, however, the expected urban population growth reinforces concerns about sustainability of cities and challenges both urban planning and the achievement of the SDGs. Hence, fostering a transformation towards sustainable and resilient human settlements requires of an adequate understanding of the drivers and patterns of the urbanisation process and the implications for resources - materials and energy - and the environment. Industrial Ecology tools, particularly those in the areas of socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) and material flow analysis (MFA), can assist the formulation and evaluation of housing policies by favouring the understanding of the long term evolution and dynamics, past and future, of housing and construction under different socioeconomic development scenarios. A dynamic MFA stock-driven model that integrates demographic, economic, lifestyle and technological components is developed and applied to the case of Colombia in order to assess major construction materials demand (cement, steel, gravel, sand, brick), and indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions from materials between 2016 and 2050. The model illustrates the use of Industrial Ecology methods to assess sustainable development policies and goals in developing countries in relation to the residential sector. Material, energy and carbon emissions are analyzed for different development paths that incorporate changes in demographic and economic conditions, construction techniques, policies targeting housing deficit, as well as lifestyle-related preferences for type of dwelling. Discussion and conclusion will focus on policy information towards the achievement of the SDGs 9, 11 and 12, particularly related to sustainable resource management, resilient infrastructure development, upgrade of slums, and provision of adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services for all population.