Tool for riskassessment and risk reduction

According to climate scenarios the global mean temperature will increase by up to 5 C, the nearest 50 to 100 year. Dry areas will become drier and humid areas will become more humid. Regional climate scenarios for Northern... [ view full abstract ]

According to climate scenarios the global mean temperature will increase by up to 5 C, the nearest 50 to 100 year. Dry areas will become drier and humid areas will become more humid. Regional climate scenarios for Northern Europe show increases in annual precipitation and heavy rain events in most parts of Sweden and large part of Northern Europe. Accordingly, the risks for flooding will increase. Also, the risks of erosion and landslides are expected to increase. Natural events such as floods and landslides already today can cause severe consequences and costly damages. The risks are expected to increase, not only as a consequence of climate change but also due to increased vulnerabilities, especially in urban areas. Although preventive measures are often cost-effective, some measures are beneficial to certain values, while some may have negative impacts on other values. In order to counteract this, methods for risk assessment and impact assessments of risk reduction measures are being developed. Here methods applied for risk analyses in Gothenburg and a method for impact assessment of risk reduction measures will be presented. The assessment tool for risk reduction aims to contribute to a more transparent and sustainable risk management process by assessing strategies and interventions with respect to both short- and long-term perspectives, including local impacts and wider environmental impacts caused by climate change, for example. The tools also cover social and economic aspects. The assessment tools provide checklists that can be applied in the local spatial planning and climate adaption process as a support for decision, thus allowing for more transparent decisions.  

Key Words: climate change adaptation, flooding, risk assessment, risk reduction assessment, short and long term, decision support