Assesment of Rural Household's Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Extremes - Ourika Watershed, Morocco

The natural variability of climate has always been a challenge for communities' livelihoods. Climate change has given a new and complex dimension to this challenge. Evidence shows that the natural variability of climate,... [ view full abstract ]

The natural variability of climate has always been a challenge for communities' livelihoods. Climate change has given a new and complex dimension to this challenge. Evidence shows that the natural variability of climate, exacerbated by climate change, will undermine communities' livelihoods, particularly in the rural areas of developing countries that lack sufficient capacity to adapt. The manifestations of climate change and its impacts vary locally as well as are adaptive capacities and strategies to cope with these impacts. Those, effective planning of adaptation programs requires an assessment of local vulnerabilities. The livelihoods framework can be adapted to the assessment of vulnerability at a local level and adaptive capacity through analysis of the state of five active assets: financial, human, social, physical and natural. This framework has been applied to study the contextual and multidimensional nature of vulnerability in the watershed of Ourika, Morocco, exposed to floods and droughts. This Climate Vulnerability Index (VCI) adopted a bottom-up approach to recognize climate change effects and the social and natural vulnerabilities in five distinct rural communities. The index is composed of household parameters for the three dimensions of vulnerability such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure is defined by natural disasters and climate variability. Sensitivity is expressed through Health, Food and Water. Adaptive capacity is defined by the socio-demographic profile, subsistence strategies and social networks. These parameters were assessed through observation and survey of 120 households randomly selected from the five communities. The results obtained showed strong but differentiated vulnerabilities according to the communities studied. These results imply that the exposure of a locality to the long-term evolution of climate hazards is the most important element in determining the overall vulnerability of a community. Of the three components of vulnerability, adaptive capacity is the component with direct implications related to the management modes and strategies followed by decision-makers at the territorial level. Improving adaptive capacity has indirect implications for improving the sensitivity of a community. The comparison of the results of vulnerabilities obtained shows that, despite having the capacity of adaptation higher, this capacity cannot be entirely realized in front of a higher exposure. The analysis of the vulnerability components shows that most vulnerable households are those with the lowest adaptive capacity and are faced with the highest exposure independently of the locality. Improving the adaptive capacity of these vulnerable households will reduce their sensitivity and finally reduce their overall vulnerability. Among the various components of adaptive capacity, the main emphasis should be placed on local policies to create opportunities for non-farm livelihood options, which will not only improve the income of the Community, but also to reduce their dependence on natural resources.