Portugal – A pathway towards 100% renewable electricity

In the last Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Marrakech, Portugal stated the objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, as a form to fulfil the Paris Agreement... [ view full abstract ]

In the last Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Marrakech, Portugal stated the objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, as a form to fulfil the Paris Agreement objectives. One crucial area in relation with this goal is the transition to 100% renewable energy, which should initially take place during the decade of 2030 for electricity. In 2016, 64% of the electricity consumption in Portugal was assured by renewable energy sources and the country bet a record of 107 continuous hours, almost 5 days, of consumption fully supplied from renewables. The research focused on the specific characteristics of the electric management system and the particular circumstances that enabled this event during that period. At the same time, and under a long-term perspective, it is important to identify the major economic, environmental and technical obstacles to increase renewable electricity production, such as the higher consumption forecasted due to electric vehicles, the increasing role of solar power with a higher seasonal variation like hydroelectricity, the storage management capacity in dams particularly with pump-storage capabilities, and the role of interconnections between countries at the Iberian and European level. Data from electricity demand forecasting models developed by different institutions were used to interpret different possible pathways and to evaluate how to achieve the current long-term challenges of full net renewable electricity sources and carbon neutrality. Also, near-future political decisions aspects currently being discussed at the European level under the energy winter package from late 2016, such as regional cooperation, market rules, and state-aid are included in the analysis. It is concluded that a major increase in solar power up to 9 GW (currently at approximately 500 MW) with a complementary increase of both wind (up to 8 GW) and hydropower (up to 8,2 GW) is required to assure the 100% renewable electricity goal. Energy efficiency measure will be crucial also for attaining the objective. This pathway will be fundamental for climate change mitigation. However, negative environmental consequences, such as the large occupation of land by energy infrastructures, will have to be considered along the next decades. Price and market considerations were not evaluated in sufficient depth due to uncertainties under the future rules of the carbon and electricity market within Europe.