Visualizing Adaptation Scenarios for Climate Change and Human Population Stress through System Dynamics Modeling in the Biobío River Basin, Chile

Climate change, population dynamics, and globalization can work in tandem with other internal stressors to constrain or even degrade the development status of states, especially when natural resources exports constitute a... [ view full abstract ]

Climate change, population dynamics, and globalization can work in tandem with other internal stressors to constrain or even degrade the development status of states, especially when natural resources exports constitute a large proportion of the GDP. Additional research is needed to better understand the impacts of these stressors on resource-dependent countries that are positioned near either side of the boundary between developing and developed. This research examines hydro-social cycles in an irrigated agricultural zone in the Biobío Region of Chile, which became the first South American member of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2010. The primary focus is the sustainable water and crop management for agricultural production along the Biobío River. The economic production in the region is partially dominated by agricultural exports, thus the behavior of both domestic and international markets combine with climate stressors when considering individual and societal decision-making. Internal stressors to the water supply in this area also include hydropower production at upstream dam operations, natural disasters, labor shortages, and push-pull dynamics with nearby cities. Thus, the Biobío River Basin (BRB) serves as a “natural laboratory” for studying adaptation strategies to impacts of climate change and population dynamics on socio-economic, ecological, and physical systems, especially given the importance of the BRB to the Regional and National economies. Investigating the interactions and feedbacks of these overlapping systems is critical for decision-making and the development of proactive adaptation strategies in the BRB. The goal of this research is to develop a system dynamics model that captures the complex biophysical, economic, social, and cultural interactions and simulates the overall behavior of the system in response to external and internal stressors. Biophysical data from government and academic sources are being combined with interviews with farmers and other stakeholders to provide the basis for modeling the relationships and feedbacks. An internet-based version of the model will also serve as a decision tool for irrigators, administrators, practitioners, and policy-makers to facilitate dispute resolution and support scenario planning. Both the process and products will contribute to several tracks of sustainability science. Keywords: Water Resources, Agriculture, Climate Change, System Dynamics, and Sustainability Science.