This paper proposes a political analysis and a proposal to monitor the impacts of the implementation of the peace process on sectoral policies relevant to forests and the economic activities of the local population. The two key questions are: ¿how will the Havana peace process and the implementation of the agreements affect the sectoral policies relevant to the forests and economic activities of the local population in Colombia? ¿how can the impacts be monitored? This issue arises in a context of the beginning of the implementation of the peace agreements with the FARC, which tangentially and timidly approach environmental sustainability as a transversal criteria.
The fundamental issue at hand here is what type of development is sustainable and viable in post-agreement in a country with the high relevance and environmental fragility of Colombia, accentuated in areas where the conflict has historically developed with greater intensity -90% of municipalities with priority in the post-agreement have some form of protection or regulation of their use, some with up to 100% of their area under these figures-. These involves restrictions on the type of economic activities that can be developed, and how they can be done. In addition, it is no secret that ecosystems have been war theaters of this conflict: coca crops, illegal mining, deforestation, potrerización, oil spills. The forest situation is particularly worrying not only because they are strategic ecosystems for climate and water regulation, but because there is an obvious, direct and close relationship between conflict and deforestation.
The implementation of peace agreements with FARC entails, rather than juicy environmental dividends, enormous risks and complexities at the environmental level that may even render the peace accord unfeasible. Through a critical review of the environmental provisions contained in the agreements and the dynamics of deforestation in Colombia, it is evident that environmental sustainability is not an accessory, but rather a vital and a strategic aspect for the construction of a durable and sustainable peace. While it is not possible to predict what the impact on the environment and deforestation will be in the post-conflict situation, the enormous risks and complexities are made evident.
Consequently, a proposal for a socio-economic monitoring mechanism is layed out, based on the identification of thirty-two (32) plans, programs, policies and strategies relevant to forests, to be carried out by empowered social groups as an exercise of social control that enriches implementation.
It is demonstrated that the implementation of the agreements can have multiple and significant impacts on forests and deforestation, and that losing sight of and diminishing the priority of environmental criteria during implementation, can make at least the Integral Rural Reform agreament non-viable, among others.
The paper proposes a simple and plausible monitoring system with four indicators initially along with a regional understanding of the drivers of deforestation, so that relevant information is colleted by three groups of civil society actors that are already empowered and actually already have an intense environmental agenda for a post-agreement scenario.
