Bioenergy features prominently in current climate mitigation scenario literature. The scenario literature generally anticipates woody or grass-type (i.e., second generation) bioenergy crops to be the most important types of biomass feedstocks for bioenergy in coming decades. At the same time, there are widely voiced concerns that large-scale expansions of crop-based bioenergy production can cause potentially significant climate and other environmental impacts. We combine the multi-regional and prospective LCA modelling framework THEMIS [Hertwich et al.2015, PNAS 112(20); Gibon et al.2015, Environ. Sci. Technol. 49(18)] with the global land use model MAgPIE [Bodirsky et al. 2012, Biogeosciences 9(10); Klein et al. 2014, Environ. Res. Letters 9(7)], in order to assess the environmental implications of future scenarios for second generation bioenergy deployment. The overarching, macro-economic framing (e.g.,energy demands, CO2 price) in which the bioenergy scenarios are explored is provided by the energy-economy-environment model REMIND.
We establish a set of region-specific and future scenario-specific life cycle inventories for bioenergy, using MAgPIE model results as data inputs. The MAgPIE results describe crop yields, land requirements, CO2 emissions from land use, irrigation water demand, nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use, and N2O emissions related to fertilization across world regions and years, under various scenarios representing different assumptions. The life cycle inventories additionally cover diesel and chemical inputs. The full life cycle inventories are then implemented in THEMIS for specific regions, scenarios and years. THEMIS incorporates selected aspects of technological variation across regions and change over time, meaning, to give one example, that we can model relatively clean electricity to supply the energy for pumping irrigation water in year 2050.
Through this novel combination of future-oriented LCA (using THEMIS) and global land use and integrated assessment modelling (using MAgPIE and REMIND), we are able to analyse both global multi-regional embodied emissions (e.g, emissions embodied in fertilizer production) and direct field emissions and land use change emissions due to future scenarios for second generation bioenergy deployment.
THEMIS is operated by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. MAgPIE and REMIND are operated by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
• Sustainable energy systems , • Advances in methods (e.g., life cycle assessment, social impact assessment, resilience a
