A sales-weighted regional analysis of electric vehicles in the United States

Electric vehicle adoption, including both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), has increased over the past several years within the United States. While many reasons for increased... [ view full abstract ]

Electric vehicle adoption, including both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), has increased over the past several years within the United States. While many reasons for increased adoption exist, the zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) states (California, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont), which require increasing levels of electric or hydrogen fueled vehicle sales, have experienced the greatest levels of adoption. BEV and PHEV combined to constitute about 0.75% of the national market share of retail vehicle sales in 2015, but that market share jumps to over 1.5% when considering only the ZEV states. This study used the vehicle registration distributions of all BEV and PHEV sales, by vehicle model, within different U.S. states from 2010 – 2015 to determine sales-weighted average vehicle characteristics for BEV and PHEV. This was used along with Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET®) model to determine the sales-weighted energy and emissions profile of BEV and PHEV within the U.S., and to compare with a similar stock of baseline gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The GREET model includes regional portfolios of each North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) electrical grid region based on the latest Energy Information Agency (EIA) electric utility data. The sales distribution determines the energy characteristics of the vehicles, and GREET’s regional electricity grid provides the emissions profiles. The study finds that the ZEV states (particularly California and Oregon) strongly influence the sales-weighted average BEV or PHEV to have a characteristic well-to-wheels emissions profile that differs substantially from assuming vehicle recharging from the average U.S. national grid. The study further examines how characteristic emissions of the BEV and PHEV are likely to change in the future based on projections from the EIA for the electrical grid mix, as well as projections for advancements in BEV and PHEV characteristics.