Victoria Santos
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Chemical Engineer, MSc. on Energy Planing. Currently is PhD Fellow of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and Guest PhD researcher at Delft University of Technology with research on the use of industrial symbiosis approach in smaller scale agro-industrial systems - mainly related to modern bio-based economy development. Worked for three years in the petrochemical sector and also work as consultant in LCA, sustainability management and academic innovation projects. Nowadays is dedicated to the PhD and is also founding member of the Brazilian Circular Economy network called "NEC - Nucleo de Economia Circular". A message taken for life: "Just imagine if 7 billion people on the planet treated each other with love and respect. Imagine what we could accomplish"
Brazil figures among the main producers of agro-commodities worldwide. Its sugarcane industry is responsible for 39% of the sugar and 28% of the ethanol being currently transacted. 88% of this production comes from larger scale productive units concentrated into five states. Yet, 82 million tonnes of sugarcane are yearly processed into 97 smaller scale sugarcane mills distributed throughout other 19 states.
Commodities’ prices are internationally set and the producers individually are not likely to influence market behavior, operating essentially as price takers. Trade in stock exchange make commodities prices increasingly volatile due to speculations over future production. It poses constant threats to the producers, especially to those at smaller scale, which operate under relatively narrower margins and are thus more vulnerable to market instabilities.
Besides the challenges all commodities have in common, the sugar and ethanol industries are on the verge of changes that may affect their market structure in the mid to long-terms. Countries like Russia and The Netherlands are adopting protectionist measures to become self-sufficient and even exporters of sugar. Meanwhile, future demands for ethanol will have to cope with vehicles electrification and with the consolidation of the circular economy in urban areas (through sharing economy, product as service, etc.).
In this study, we argue that the industrial symbiosis approach and the biorefinery concept are capable of providing the diversification, sustainability and competitiveness that smaller scale sugarcane industry will need to build resilience in such uncertain market.
Learning from previous works on the Norte Fluminense region, we develop an agent-based model to study the co-evolution of the socio-technical system consisting of a hypothetical succinic acid producer biorefinery acting as the central element of a regional industrial symbiosis network. In the model, we identify which factors could influence the proposed transition and also explore which outcomes are likely to emerge in terms of regional development.
The Norte Fluminense region was once the major sugar producer in the country but has lost this position to become its main oil & gas (O&G) producer. It currently responds to 68% of national O&G production, while figures among the least productive sugarcane areas. Yet, the huge O&G revenues to the region have merely been invested on initiatives to compensate the O&G market volatility and its potential unavailability in the future.
The agents in the model represent the sugarcane farmers, sugarcane mills, other manufacturing units in the region and also the sugarcane buyers (mediators between farmers and mill owners). Focusing mainly on the technical-economic dimension, we consider scenarios over the effects of O&G revenues, the influence of logistic costs – given the very large area of the region (9,750 km² ) –, and the singularity of feedstock shortage drawing pathways to overcome it.
• Complexity, resilience and sustainability , • Industrial ecology in developing countries , • Industrial symbiosis and eco-industrial development
