An industrial ecology perspective of the future of shale gas in the US

After two years of low world gas prices and high fossil fuel production, and the commitment of president Obama of reducing carbon emission in the oil and gas sector, the victory of Donald Trump and OPEP’s plans of curbing... [ view full abstract ]

After two years of low world gas prices and high fossil fuel production, and the commitment of president Obama of reducing carbon emission in the oil and gas sector, the victory of Donald Trump and OPEP’s plans of curbing extraction seem to predict a new golden period for shale gas as a pillar in the energy security and economic stability of the US. The scientific community has devoted a number of efforts to study the impacts of shale gas production and use over the environment, the societies and the economies separately. However, for policy making, it would be more useful to analyze the trade-offs of different scenarios in the production and use of shale gas.

In this work I combine (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism) MuSIASEM and LCA to analyze the socio-ecosystem metabolism of the shale gas industry in PA and describe its trade-offs . I present two scenarios for 2025. First, I test President Obama’s commitment to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector to 45% below 2012 levels, even with the growth of the sector expected by the EIA. Second, I test president-elect Trump’s plan to “unleash” U.S. shale gas reserves and reduce controls on emissions to the industry. 

The results show that the distribution of the well population matters. The impacts of the wells are distributed according to their age. Despite being the most desirable scenario regarding climate change, the Obama scenario does not seem to be viable with the current energy technology and networks. The Trump scenario is also not a solution for either reduction of emissions or improving the economic situation of counties in Pennsylvania.