A participatory modelling approach to assess human behavior and decision making in the context of Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security strategies in Mali, West Africa

West Africa struggles with high levels of food insecurity (IFPRI, 2013). Components of food security form complex socio-ecological systems which operate at various scales and involve various environmental, economic, cultural,... [ view full abstract ]

West Africa struggles with high levels of food insecurity (IFPRI, 2013). Components of food security form complex socio-ecological systems which operate at various scales and involve various environmental, economic, cultural, behavioral, political, social, and institutional dynamics. This research forms a subcomponent of an NSF-funded project aimed towards studying the complex food security system in Mali through participatory ensemble modelling approach and the ASSAR (Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions) project, funded by UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) and Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC)

In July 2015, data collection on household dynamics of food security was done among 44 respondents in six villages in Koutiala district in Mali in the form of extensive narratives from individual household members (elder and younger men, elder and younger women). The aim of the narratives was to gain insight into components of individual cognition and perceptions of agriculture, climate change and food security as well as individual and household-level decision making in terms of adaptation to climate risks and food insecurity. The mental models revealed interesting insights into the complex intra household dynamics with respect to farming and food security decisions. Most respondents reported the rise of intergenerational conflicts where sub-units within the family are branching out from the collective leading to a transition in the overall society structure and increased vulnerability to food insecurity.

In order to calibrate the decision making heuristics of farmers from the mental models and to translate it into agent based models,  an innovative role playing board game was designed which uses a participatory game based approach to understand farmer decision making and cognitive strategies around food production, distribution and consumption under various climate scenarios. The game simulates farming experience of smallholder farmers from food production to allocation to consumption as well as random climatic risk events that occur during a cropping season. Through the game, the farmers play out adaptation strategies to these random climatic events The purpose of the game was to calibrate farmers’ decision structures which can be used for the parameterization of agents in an agent based model (ABM) To the best of knowledge, this is the first attempt to model intra-household dynamics in both food security and climate adaptation using empirical data from role-playing simulation games.

The game, apart from being a data collection tool has proved to be a good educational tool for farmers as it helped them look at their farming activities and decisions under climatic risks from a larger systems perspective. It also helped them to understand the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies implemented by them.  The study is the first of its kind and has the potential to be replicated in other geographies with a focus on participatory, action based science.