Environmental impacts of future metal scenarios

While global scenarios exist for climate change and energy, they are lacking for resource use. The International Resource Panel is presently debating such scenarios. Preliminary studies show that resource use will increase... [ view full abstract ]

While global scenarios exist for climate change and energy, they are lacking for resource use. The International Resource Panel is presently debating such scenarios. Preliminary studies show that resource use will increase substantially, and that no decoupling of resource use from economic development is foreseen. To assess the environmental impacts of such scenarios, we have translated demand scenarios into technology specific supply scenarios for seven major metals. It appears that a transition towards a renewable energy system reduces impacts for some of those metals, but will not reverse the increasing trend of impacts. The only systematic change that will reduce impacts of metal use in a really substantive manner is the transition towards a circular economy. Combined with the energy transition, a real reduction of impacts might be expected by the end of the century. This leads to the conclusion that the circular economy agenda is similar to the climate change agenda: long term, global level, requiring large changes in society, and urgent.