In and out of home care decisions: The influence of confirmation bias in developing decision supportive reasoning

Objectives The research reported here is part of an international study in child protection decision-making The aims of this study were to identify the factors Social Workers regard as important in supporting decisions to... [ view full abstract ]

Objectives The research reported here is part of an international study in child protection decision-making The aims of this study were to identify the factors Social Workers regard as important in supporting decisions to remove children from, or return them to, the care of their parents and to elicit the hypotheses underlying the interpretation of evidence in the decision-making process.

Method A case study, comprising a two-part vignette with a questionnaire, recorded demographic information, child welfare attitudes and risk assessments, using scales derived from standardised instruments, was completed by 202 Social Workers in Northern Ireland. There were two manipulated variables, mother’s attitude to removal (in part one) and child’s attitude to reunification (in part two). Data derived from respondents’ comments explaining their reasoning for in and out of home care decisions were analysed.

Results Some 60.9% of respondent’s chose the ‘remain in parental care’ option at part one, with 94% choosing to have the child ‘remain in foster care’ at part two. The manipulated variables were found to have no significant statistical effect. However, three underlying hypotheses were found to underpin the decisions, (a) child rescue, (b), kinship defence and (c) a hedged position on calculation of risk subject to further assessment.

Conclusion Reasoning strategies used by Social Workers to support their decision-making suggest that they tend to selectively interpret information either positively or negatively to support pre-existing underlying hypotheses. This finding is in keeping with the literature on ‘confirmation bias’. The research draws attention to the need to incorporate open questions in quantitative studies, to help guard against surface reading of data, which often does not ‘speak for itself.’ Social Workers should endeavour to make their underlying hypotheses explicit in decision-making processes.