Predication on Beijing Kindergarten Learning Position Demand and Policy Suggestion

By using classical cohort-component method, 0-6 years old population scale is predicted at three levels: high, middle and low. Comprehensive inspection is made involving 0-6 years old population scale, kindergarten enrollment... [ view full abstract ]

By using classical cohort-component method, 0-6 years old population scale is predicted at three levels: high, middle and low. Comprehensive inspection is made involving 0-6 years old population scale, kindergarten enrollment rate to predict kindergarten learning position demand scale in Beijing from 2016 to 2025. The results show that demand scale of Beijing kindergarten learning position will continue to increase from 2016 to 2020/2021, then slowly fall. But specific numbers of this demand and peak year are different among different levels of prediction. Based on the prediction it’s suggested that preschool teacher scale should be reasonable planned and expanded in the future especially nearly 5-6 years.