Foresight by Online Communities – The Case of Renewable Energies

This study gives first insights in the use of online communities (OCs) for foresight. In particular, this study deals with the question how to assess the potential of OCs for foresight by developing a method for this... [ view full abstract ]

This study gives first insights in the use of online communities (OCs) for foresight. In particular, this study deals with the question how to assess the potential of OCs for foresight by developing a method for this assessment. In doing so, this paper contributes to both research fields – foresight and the open and user innovation phenomena. First, based on literature it is conceptually shown how OCs with their special characteristics can contribute to foresight. Second, OCs in the field of renewable energies are identified with a netnographic approach. Two selected OCs are then analyzed regarding their foresight potential by applying a prior developed criteria catalog which is based on Popper’s foresight diamond. Each of its four dimensions – creativity, expertise, interaction, and evidence – is operationalized with measurement items from literature. The findings show – conceptually and empirically – that OCs can contribute to each dimension of the foresight diamond. By integrating OCs’ knowledge and retrieved information in companies’ foresight processes, they serve as an additional source of information for foresight. Nevertheless, this study is explorative in nature and needs to be validated with further data in future studies.