Unprecedented climate, social, economic and political changes predicted to occur in the next 30 years present a major challenge for long-term planning towards enhancing social-ecological resilience. Impacts are particularly... [ view full abstract ]
Unprecedented climate, social, economic and political changes predicted to occur in the next 30 years present a major challenge for long-term planning towards enhancing social-ecological resilience. Impacts are particularly pronounced in mountain systems, where specific features amplify vulnerability, such as topographic complexity, remoteness, high kinetic energy, and exposure to multiple hazards. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) has been established in recent years as a useful tool for local communities to envision potential future pathways of change in the face of uncertainty and foster adaptive systems thinking and capacity. However, the application PSP processes in mountain systems remains in the early stages, many of benefits are assumed and to date a global synthesis critically reviewing of the state of evidence in is missing. This research aims to improve understanding of PSP in mountain systems by systematically reviewing the evidence base of critical drivers of change identified in scenarios, relate desired and undesired futures, examine trajectories of change in, and identify common opportunities and challenges to realizing desired futures to support livelihoods and ecosystem services. After screening 1983 studies at title, abstract and full text levels from 5 bibliographic databases, 5 key journals, a call to the Mountain Sentinels Collaborative Network and 13 specialist organization websites, 42 studies were included in the final systematic review and coded using 9 categories. Case studies were widely spread in forty countries, and six continents.Results suggest what pressures may develop in the future for communities whose livelihoods depend on agricultural, pastoralism, tourism, logging and NTFPs in mountains, such as the Drakensburg in South Africa and the Eastern Arc Mountains in Tanzania. Scenarios indicate plausible livelihood trajectories, related to indicators such as income, market access, water and sanitation, energy, healthcare, decision-making, governance arrangements, land tenure and gender equality. Results further suggest synergies and tradeoffs in adaptation pathways, such as balancing external investments in eco-tourism and conflicts in land use, and may inform future PSP methodological approaches to apply to data-deficient regions.
Topics: Collaborative Conservation , Topics: Implications of Global Change
