Are carnivores driving farm succession failure in Norway?

Recent reports in Norwegian newspapers have suggested that the increasing carnivore populations in Norway could have a serious impact on farm succession in family farms as farmers are put under economic and psychological... [ view full abstract ]

Recent reports in Norwegian newspapers have suggested that the increasing carnivore populations in Norway could have a serious impact on farm succession in family farms as farmers are put under economic and psychological pressure by predation of their livestock. With farmers experiencing a variety of other economic stressors as well as pressure from government to increase herd sizes (making ensuring stock safety more difficult), increased or even sustained levels of predation could well be the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back”. However, despite strong expressions of concern from the farmers’ organizations and other sources there is, as yet, no scientific evidence directly connecting carnivore predation to the loss of farms in Norway.

This poster presents results from the Local Carnivore study – a research project that examines the relationship between carnivores, farmers and rural communities in Norway. We examine the relationship between carnivores, farm succession, production change and farm closure. The analyses are based on data from “Trends in Norwegian Agriculture 2018” a biennial survey of Norwegian farmers covering sociocultural and structural aspects of agriculture. We supplement the survey data with (a) municipality level data from the Norwegian Environment Agency’s “Rovbase” (containing all registered livestock deaths in Norway) and (b) registered carnivore observations from Skandobs - the Scandinavian reporting system for lynx, wolverine, brown bear and wolf (Skandobs). Using multilevel and spatial regression analyses, we assess the extent to which proximity to observed carnivore attacks and presence of carnivores correlates with farm succession, production changes and farm closure. We also examine other known drivers of succession failure (such as the economic condition of the farm and farm size) and assess whether proximity to predators is an important additional contributing factor. Does adding proximity to predators to the model affect its ability to predict succession failure?