Wolf recolonization and livestock depredation in Brandenburg, Germany

Since their return to Germany in 2000, the first territorial wolves have settled in the state of Brandenburg, in Northeastern Germany, in 2007. The species is strictly protected by national and EU law and profits additionally... [ view full abstract ]

Since their return to Germany in 2000, the first territorial wolves have settled in the state of Brandenburg, in Northeastern Germany, in 2007. The species is strictly protected by national and EU law and profits additionally from high prey densities in Brandenburg, which is the state that hosts the highest number of wolves in Germany since 2017. While the wolves´ expansion and rapid increase in numbers is a great success for nature conservation, it leads to significant challenges especially for livestock keepers. Despite early implementation of subsidies for preventive measures, depredation on livestock has increased continuously and lately affects husbandry of suckler cows. Increasing conflicts between stakeholders, i.e. strict conservation vs. hunting and livestock husbandry, have called this topic on the political agenda, requesting for evidence-based decision support. In our study, we investigate the spatio-temporal expansion of wolves in Brandenburg state from 2010 to 2017 and corresponding livestock depredation. We hypothesized that effective preventive measures have been primarily adapted by professional livestock keepers and for sheep, whereas non-commercial livestock keepers and suckler cow keepers are less well equipped, which causes over time an increased depredation risk for the latter livestock husbandry methods. In Brandenburg, there is extensive free-range suckler cow husbandry, for which the introduction of preventive measures remains difficult due to the large-scale pasture structures. This challenge will increase with a growing wolf population and migration into northern parts of Brandenburg, where suckler cow husbandry and non-commercial sheep keeping are especially high in numbers. To provide evidence for a facts-based discussion of future management scenarios and identify situations of increased risk, we analyzed the correlations between observed wolf presence, the occurrence of livestock depredation and related factors (land use characteristics, animal species, distance to buildings). For this purpose, a multi-factor analysis based on the state´s wolf monitoring data and reports on livestock killings was carried out. Results have shown an increased risk for livestock losses in the vicinity of wolf territories and forest, which suggests that subsides for livestock protection should be focused on these regions. Additional research and especially experimental studies on the effectiveness of different livestock protection methods, which could not be taken into account in this study, are required.