Quantifying human-wildlife conflicts: Reconstructing the fate of a reintroduced lynx population in Central Europe to estimate mortality

Human-wildlife conflicts are exacerbated when concerning large carnivores. Although strictly protected by law in many countries of the world, large carnivores are still vulnerable due to habitat loss and illegal killing. The... [ view full abstract ]

Human-wildlife conflicts are exacerbated when concerning large carnivores. Although strictly protected by law in many countries of the world, large carnivores are still vulnerable due to habitat loss and illegal killing. The lynx population of the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem (BFELP) is an example for a reintroduced carnivore population in Central Europe expanding rapidly in the 1980´s (phase I), but then contracted and stagnated at a low population size (phase II). There is some evidence that illegal killing might have caused this development; however, there is no reliable data on the intensity of illegal killing available, and hence long-term consequences for the population cannot be assessed. We used an existing spatially-explicit individual-based dispersal and population model to inversely fit mortality probabilities to long-term monitoring data integrating chance observations and telemetry data, while separating other sources of mortality. During phase I the estimated additional mortality ranged between 3–4%, while in phase II it reached ~15-20 %, preventing the animals from colonizing new habitat patches. This corresponds with an approximate number of 9-15 lynx annually as a model result. Up to 8 cases of illegally killed lynx per year are reported from the study area. The probability of extinction in phase II ranged between 13–74%, thereby reaching a tipping point at which additional poaching of few animals could drive the population to extinction. Therefore the highest priority for the conservation of the BFELP should be the prevention of illegal killing in the national parks and their immediate surroundings.