The Beveridge Curve in the Recovery from the Great Recession: Estimates for Five Geographic Regions

Abstract AbstractThis exercise documents the shift in the Beveridge Curve (the relationship between job vacancies and the unemployment rate) in the post-Great Recession time period for the United States, the four census... [ view full abstract ]

Abstract

Abstract

This exercise documents the shift in the Beveridge Curve (the relationship between job vacancies and the unemployment rate) in the post-Great Recession time period for the United States, the four census regions, and the Commonwealth of Virginia. Utilizing JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and an alternative measure of job openings for Virginia, we present statistical and graphical evidence of the outward shift in the curve by region.  We calculate the magnitude of the shift in terms of the unemployment rate for each region.   Shifts for the Northeast, Mid-West and West census regions were similar to that of the nation, the measured shift for the South was slightly smaller.  In general, the evidence does not yet support a second shift in the curves back to the pre-recovery curves, with the possible exceptions of the West census region and Virginia.  For Virginia, we find a similar (though somewhat larger) shift in the Beveridge Curve.  We also attempt to decompose the shift into structural and cyclical components with respect to unemployment.  As with most estimates of this sort we find the cyclical component to be larger.