Systems Thinking in Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: The Case for Alternative Vehicle Options

This research aims to advance the state-of-the-art and the state-of-ptractice of sustainability research by exploring interactions and feedback mechanisms between the environment, economy, and society within the context of US... [ view full abstract ]

This research aims to advance the state-of-the-art and the state-of-ptractice of sustainability research by exploring interactions and feedback mechanisms between the environment, economy, and society within the context of US transportation. Systems thinking approach is utilized to reveal the bigger picture, recognize patterns and relationships, and learn how to smaller competent effect one another within the complete entity. System Dynamics modeling is used to model complex interactions among the environmental, economic, and social impacts of US transportation. A total of seven macro level impact categories (global warming potential, particulate matter formation, photochemical oxidant formation, contribution to gross domestic product, vehicle ownership cost, human health impacts and employment generation) are selected for comparing four vehicle options including internal combustion vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and battery electric vehicles. Extreme customer choice scenarios are tested to reveal the maximum impacts and alternatives are compared. Analysis results revealed that any alternative vehicle option, alone, cannot reduce the rapidly increasing atmospheric temperature and the negative impacts of the global climate change, even though the entire fleet is replaced with the most environmental friendly vehicle option. In addition, the impacts from feedbacks within the society, economy, and the environment are found to be smaller compared to exogenous drivers such as existing and expected trends in population, economy, and global warming. There is a strong need for robust simulation models that would allow us to consider dynamic complexity to mainly understand, not just quantify the sustainability impacts of products.