Assigning and communicating a volcano warning: negotiating uncertainty, risk, and complexity

Over the last four decades volcano observatories have adopted a number of different communication strategies for the dissemination of information on changes in volcanic behaviour and potential hazards to a wide range of user... [ view full abstract ]

Over the last four decades volcano observatories have adopted a number of different communication strategies for the dissemination of information on changes in volcanic behaviour and potential hazards to a wide range of user groups. These commonly include a standardised volcano alert level system (VALS), used in conjunction with other uni-directional communication techniques (such as information statements, reports, and maps) and multi-directional techniques (such as meetings and telephone calls). This research, based on interviews and observation conducted 2007-2009 at the five United States Geological Survey (USGS) volcano observatories (Alaska, Cascades, Hawaii, Long Valley, and Yellowstone) and including some of the key users of the VALS, provides an evaluation of the decision making processes involved, in tandem with the communication of both hazard and risk information.

The research provides the first evaluation of how the decision-making process behind the assignation of an alert level, using forecasts of volcanic behaviour, operates in practice. Observatory scientists encounter difficulties in interpreting scientific data, and in making decisions about what a volcano is doing, when dealing with complex volcanic processes. The decision to move between alert levels is based upon a complex negotiation of perceived social and environmental risks. A consideration of different approaches to negotiating uncertainty and risk that are deliberative would, therefore, be beneficial in volcanic hazard management insofar as these suggest effective practices for decision-making processes in assigning an alert level.

In consequence, ‘best practice’ recommendations eschew further standardisation, and focus on the in situ cultivation of dialogue between scientists and users as a means of disseminating useful information. This research subsequently evaluates the importance of understanding how communicating volcanic hazard information takes place as an everyday social practice. Findings indicate that whilst VALS play a role in raising awareness of an unfolding situation, supplementary communication techniques are crucial in facilitating understanding of that situation, and the uncertainties inherent to its scientific assessment, as well as in facilitating specific responses. These findings establish that decision-making processes are problematic in the face of intrinsic uncertainties and risks, such that warning systems become complex and nonlinear.

"Symposium tite: The societal side of early warning and evacuation decisions"