In 2011 the world was confronted with the first major nuclear accident since Chernobyl (1986). This study explores how the national context moderated change in public opinion after the Fukushima accident. Previous research has shown that in the aftermath of a nuclear accident public acceptance of nuclear energy decreases (e.g. Renn, 1990; Visschers & Siegrist, 2013). However, only few empirical studies have tried to empirically answer the question which contextual factors affect public opinion change after a major nuclear accident. The studies that exist, for example Kim, Kim, and Kim (2013), have mainly focused on objective contextual factors such as the share of nuclear in the energy mix, etc. In this paper we contribute to the literature by including political and psychological factors embedded within the literature on policy change (e.g. strength of the anti-nuclear advocacy coalition). Using the Win-Gallup International Global Snap Poll conducted in 47 countries after the Fukushima accident, we perform a multilevel analysis to test our hypotheses. We find that general contextual factors are less influential than often expected. The inclusion of contextual factors more strongly embedded within the literature do add to our understanding of how public opinion change after major events is moderated by the national context. This indicates that the political process is a factor that should be considered in studies on public opinion change. In general our results illustrate the need for a more nuanced debate on the impact of the national context on public opinion change. Too often context is assumed to explain more than it actually does. We situate our findings within the broader debate on policy representation on complex technological issues such as nuclear energy.
Kim, Y., Kim, M., & Kim, W. (2013). Effect of the Fukushima nuclear disaster on global public acceptance of nuclear energy. Energy Policy, 61, 822-828.
Renn, O. (1990). Public responses to the Chernobyl accident. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10, 151-167.
Visschers, V. H., & Siegrist, M. (2013). How a nuclear power plant accident influences acceptance of nuclear power: results of a longitudinal study before and after the Fukushima disaster. Risk Analysis, 33(2), 333-347.
