Pertinence of existing methods of hazard and risk identification to the complexity of an interconnected world

Hazards and risks are currently identified in generic silos using top-down tools and methods which are incorporated into whole system risk management frameworks such as; ISO31000, enterprise risk management and project... [ view full abstract ]

Hazards and risks are currently identified in generic silos using top-down tools and methods which are incorporated into whole system risk management frameworks such as; ISO31000, enterprise risk management and project management. The current methods of identification and documentation are linear in approach and presentation. The world is multi-dimensional requiring a method of identification which responds to complex non-linear relationships. Many tools and methods used for hazard identification commence with a known failure and establish cause and effect. The starting position of a known failure or event precludes identification of new types of failure or events and perpetuates a linear approach to hazard and risk identification.
The linear design of the current risk registers does not facilitate the presentation of multidimensional identification. At best it accommodates an aggregation of risks identified in different generic silos. The current methods do not accommodate multiple life-cycles and components within cross disciplinary relationships. The identification of these hazards requires an approach which incorporates different types of cross-disciplinary interrelationships. A novel method which introduces different interrelationships using the dimensions of generic, interface, causation and accumulation to the identification of hazards and risks has been developed.
The validity of these dimensions was tested by application to a closed landfill, a carbon capture project and a UK reporting authority. The closed landfill established whether the dimensions could be identified if there was no previous risk information or pre-existing risk register. Data from a carbon capture and storage project was used to test the identification of previously unknown risks. The UK reporting authority in the water sector was required to compile a register of risks resulting from a climate change risk assessment and facilitated testing the application of the dimensions to new requirements for climate change risk assessment.
The application of the novel method confirmed the identification of interface, causation and accumulation risks without previous risk information or the existence of a risk register. The method identified previously unidentified risks where a risk register was already in existence. A by-product of the method is the provision of a systematic audit of the existing risk register which can highlight inconsistencies. The novel dimensions of interface, causation and accumulation accommodates dependency, interconnectivity and inter-portfolio relationships reflecting the complexity of the real world.