Volcanic ash and aviation – stakeholder partnership analysis in Europe

With 44 eruptions within the last 200 years, volcanic eruptions occur on average approximately once every five years in Iceland. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April-May 2010 revealed the fragility of air traffic in case... [ view full abstract ]

With 44 eruptions within the last 200 years, volcanic eruptions occur on average approximately once every five years in Iceland. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April-May 2010 revealed the fragility of air traffic in case of an ash producing volcanic eruption. The ash cloud caused widespread air travel disruption in Europe which reverberated around the world; 107,000 flights were cancelled during an 8 days period, impacting about 48% of total European air traffic and about 10 million passengers. The event called for a coordinated transnational response.
This research assesses the developments since then and the governance performance by researching the cooperation between stakeholders involved today. The study also tests how well the aviation industry is prepared to meet the risk of another volcanic ash cloud reaching the European continent. It identifies the current state of the Multi-Sector-Partnership that works together on aviation preparedness to volcanic ash eruption. The research carried out a literature and policy review and conducted semi-structured face-to-face interviews with experts to analyse the institutional changes and cooperation that have been developed since the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010. Two scenarios of large volcanic eruptions in Iceland were created to visualize the possible spread of volcanic ash in the European airspace. Data collected from historic eruptions and weather observations serve as inputs to an established volcanic ash distribution model. A scenario-workshop with the parties involved was carried out to identify obstacles and solutions in the risk management of volcanic ash, regarding the general process and under accelerated conditions of the extreme case scenarios. The study identified improvement measures along the lines of communication, research & development, staff preparation and contingency planning. The most important measure to strengthen the MSP’s positive impact on society’s resilience is the creation of a comprehensive long term contingency plan and thus the enhancement of the partnership. The study aims to contribute to an improved understanding among the stakeholders about the potential threat to the European airspace from a more severe volcanic eruption with ash emission from Iceland. Ultimately, it facilitates the stakeholders to strengthen the partnership´s effort in preparing the international community for an event similar or larger than the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010.