Energy transition and the changing risks to human safety, health and environment

Momentum for energy transition is building worldwide in order to mitigate climate change and, in some countries, phase out nuclear power. This energy transition decreases the risks to human safety, health and environment that... [ view full abstract ]

Momentum for energy transition is building worldwide in order to mitigate climate change and, in some countries, phase out nuclear power. This energy transition decreases the risks to human safety, health and environment that are caused by climate change impacts or potential nuclear accidents. However, the energy transition itself is also not risk free and the scope of this change in risks has not yet been well understood. Compiling data from existing risk databases, quantitative analyses, and expert elicitations we map the change in risks to human safety, health, built and natural environment associated with the transition of the Swiss electricity generation portfolio from today to 2050. In terms of risks, we show that energy transition leads to a more diverse, less understood and spatially distributed set of risks. For example, hydropower is prone to changing severe accident risk due to unprecedented climate change. Induced seismicity by deep geothermal plants or carbon capture and storage is an emerging risk and is characterized by limited understanding and agreement among experts. The deployment of decentralized renewable technologies, such as biogas, wind or solar, means that toxicity or accident risks are becoming much more spatially distributed as well, even if the associated risks are relatively low. This spatially-distributed character of risks requires capacity to manage these risks not only at a federal level, but also at local levels. These distributed risks will likely become more visible to the local population and raise concerns that are to be best addressed through public engagement from early on. In sum, we argue for more attention to the analysis, management and public engagement for risks associated with the energy transition.

This abstract is part of the "Energy transition and changing risks" symposium proposed by Evelina Trutnevyte, ETH Zurich.