PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT IN OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING

Most major earthquakes occur without any observed precursory evidence on which to base a hazard warning decision. However, for some major earthquakes, a degree of precursory evidence may be available, identifying a time... [ view full abstract ]

Most major earthquakes occur without any observed precursory evidence on which to base a hazard warning decision. However, for some major earthquakes, a degree of precursory evidence may be available, identifying a time period of significant probability gain. This may arise where a sequence of one or more tremors may be interpreted probabilistically as foreshocks to a damaging earthquake. This may be the situation, for example, during an event swarm. During an extended time period after a damaging earthquake, a significant probability gain of a further damaging earthquake may also develop.
Even though, from the estimated probability gain, seismologists cannot be at all confident that a damaging earthquake is imminent in a specified region, seismic risk analysts can be confident, in varying degrees, that various classes of mitigating actions are justified. This key difference in perspective between seismologists and risk analysts underlies the opportunity and challenge behind operational earthquake forecasting. Cost-benefit analysis is the systematic methodology which makes rational sense of actions even when event likelihood is quite low.
Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEF) may be issued to motivate a diverse range of potential mitigating actions that might reduce the risk of casualties should a major earthquake occur. Public engagement in decision-making is crucial. As a bridge between the seismological community and OEF stakeholders, seismic risk analysts would fulfill an important strategic role in facilitating this public engagement.
Most of the possible OEF actions should involve the active and informed cooperation of citizens in the region affected. Guidelines for the involvement of citizens in the decision making process are identified, with a focus on key principles which provide a platform for OEF participatory decision making. These principles include the democratic right of citizens to information and choice; the need for basic training and education on risk issues to enable citizens to make more evidence-based decisions; the opportunities for governments to nudge rather than coerce citizens into taking OEF actions; the scope for application of the precautionary principle or its variants; and the over-arching need for decisions to be rational, equitable and defensible.

"Symposium title: The societal side of early warning and evacuation decisions”