Rockets and Right-Wing Parties: The Impact of Terrorism on Elections in Southern Israel

Security concerns have been at the forefront of the minds of Israeli voters since the founding of the country in 1948. My research will explore whether or not there is a significant relationship between terrorism and... [ view full abstract ]

Security concerns have been at the forefront of the minds of Israeli voters since the founding of the country in 1948. My research will explore whether or not there is a significant relationship between terrorism and electoral outcomes in Israel. I will specifically look at the southern city of Ashkelon as well as all of southern Israel. To answer this question, I will examine the time period prior to the first intifada, 1970-1980, and from the start of the second intifada to present day, 2000-2015. I will consider the proximity of timing of terrorist attacks to elections, the type of terrorist attacks, the number of wounded and fatalities, as well as the physical geography of attacks. My hypothesis is that with an increase in terrorist attacks preceding an election, there will concurrently be an increase in the percentage of votes for right wing parties.