Identifying relevant factors for the risk assessment of children referred to Child Protection Services: a Judgment Analysis approach

The risk assessment of cases referred to Child Protection Services (CPS) is crucial for the implementation of preventive and protective interventions for minors and their family. This is a complex and challenging task, which... [ view full abstract ]

The risk assessment of cases referred to Child Protection Services (CPS) is crucial for the implementation of preventive and protective interventions for minors and their family. This is a complex and challenging task, which appears to be influenced by several factors related to both family fragilities and resources. The present study used the “judgment analysis” approach to investigate the association of a set of proximate and distal risk and protective factors and the CPS workers’ risk assessment. 340 social records of families referred to CPS due to child maltreatment were retrospectively analyzed on the basis of the Protocol of risk and Protective factors (Di Blasio, 2005). To identify the most relevant factors for the discrimination of high- and low-risk cases (operationalized as child out-of-home placement vs monitoring and parental abilities support), a decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm was performed. The decision tree estimated that the risk factors lack of knowledge or disregard for the child development, approval of violence and punishments as educational practices, and the protective factors autonomy/independence and desire to improve oneself allowed to correctly classify the 76.8% of the cases. To confirm the predictive power of these factors and calculate related odds ratio, a hierarchical logistic regression was performed (χ²= 119.83; p<.001; R² Nagelkerke=.39). The risk factors lack of knowledge or disregard for the child development and approval of violence and punishments as educational practices respectively result in a 328% and 87% increase in the odds of high risk evaluation, while the protective factors autonomy/independence and desire to improve oneself respectively result in a 76% and 61% decrease in the odds of parent-child separation. Applicative implications will be discussed.