3. How to influence policy to prevent sexual violence – Preventing recidivism

To effectively prevent recidivism of a sex offender, treatment intensity should match the recidivism risk of the offender (risk-principle). In the Dutch system, a probation officer and a psychologist write a presentence report... [ view full abstract ]

To effectively prevent recidivism of a sex offender, treatment intensity should match the recidivism risk of the offender (risk-principle). In the Dutch system, a probation officer and a psychologist write a presentence report advising the prosecutor and the judge both on the offender’s risk of recidivism and on the desired treatment intensity. This system implies five ingredients for risk-appropriate intervention.  

1. Reports must adequately assess recidivism risk;

2. Intervention advice must match risk level;

3. Advisors must effectively communicate risk information and advice;

4. Prosecutors and judges must correctly understand risk information and advice;

5. Prosecutors and judges must demand/impose risk-appropriate intervention. 

   Our objective is to assess whether these requirements are met in Dutch practice and to identify potential problems, and  to use these results to inform and improve policy.

    The first study aims at ingredients 3 and 4 and is a survey amongst judges, prosecutors, and both types of presentence report authors asking them to estimate recidivism percentages for commonly used risk labels (e.g. ’high’, ‘average’). The second study is an analysis of cases files of 200 suspected sex offenders investigating how risk is assessed, how it informs advice, and how prosecutors and judges decide based on this information.

   The survey showed that interpretation of risk categories in terms of recidivism percentages differs both within and between groups, and also from recidivism statistics, thereby hampering communication. The case analysis of the presentence reports showed that psychological reports often do not adequately assess and/or report risk, and that report authors don’t fully match their intervention advice to the level of risk they assess.

    These results show that ingredients 1 to 4 for risk-appropriate treatment sentencing of sex offenders aren’t (fully) met in the Netherlands. I will discuss how to formulate science-informed policy recommendations and get them implemented.