Improving Estimates of Enrolment and Out-of-School Rates with Citizen Surveys: Evidence from East Africa

The paper explores the possibility that citizen-led surveys provide a better coverage of populations and specifically of hard-to-reach poorer areas than the international standardised household surveys which are the basis for... [ view full abstract ]

The paper explores the possibility that citizen-led surveys provide a better coverage of populations and specifically of hard-to-reach poorer areas than the international standardised household surveys which are the basis for many of the estimates used in assessing progress towards meeting SDG 4; and especially for enrolment and out-of-school rates. This hypothesis is based on the argument that, the local volunteer enumerators of citizen-led surveys are likely to be more sensitive to the specificities of local population distribution and (recent) changes than those centrally trained; and may be more effective at reaching hard-to reach groups such as those nomadic groups and those in urban slums. 

To test the hypothesis, the results of citizen-led surveys carried out in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have been compared at a sub-national level with those of contemporaneous Demographic and Health Surveys for estimates of access to water. Overall, at national level, we find that the estimates from citizen-led surveys for access to clean water were lower than those of the contemporaneous DHS surveys at a statistically significant level and these differences were statistically significant at the 0.01% level; moreover the differences were very large in regions where there are high concentrations of nomads and of urban slums, implying that the citizen-led surveys ‘catch’ more poverty. 

Further, using the lowest estimate of the percentage ‘missing’ in urban slums and extrapolating to all developing countries, there are an estimated 369 million adults and 61 million 6-15 year old children missing from the sampling frames of standardised household surveys in developing countries worldwide.  This has important implications for the ‘Leave no one behind’ appeal of the UN Secretary General and for the UN’s ‘Data Revolution’; and makes nonsense of OECD’s effort to extend their empire to lower middle income countries through PISA for Development.